You could consider wrapping the valve with toilet paper etc and see where it gets wet.
That said, it does seem difficult for a leak on this side of the escutcheon to give a pattern like that. Could it be that the pattern is old from an old leak?
Edit... I just noticed another pattern around the drain pipe. That would make it more likely that the source of the water was on the other side of the wall. However if this is an outside wall, the leak could be from something other than plumbing. Maybe a window or siding?