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One thing to always remember is that a white wire is not always a neutral. So yes, in this case especially since the white wire in the 2 wire Romex is being used as a hot since it was marked with black tape to indicate specifically that it is being used as a hot wire in this case.
I agree, the 3 wire romex (red, black, white) on the right is bringing power in. The hot wire (black) is connected to the black wire hot on the 2 wire (should actually be connected to the hot wire white) then it goes down to the switch and back up on the white (it should come back up on the black wire). This is a switch loop. Switch loop the power comes in on the white wire (remarked as hot) and then back up to the light with the black wire as per code.
The 3 wire red feeds either the light or fan and the 2 wire switch loop feeds the other. So the power originates from the switch box. This is how I am interpreting your diagram.
By the way when I or others (usually) refer to the number of wires we usually don't include the ground in the count as that really tends to confuse many. It is just known that there is a ground in the count. So when mentioned 2 wire it means 3 including the ground wire.
A.) 12/2 Romex for example: would be a black wire, white wire and a bare wire = 3 wires total.
B.) 12/3 Romex for example: would be a black wire, white wire and a bare wire and a red wire = 4 wires total.
Also, you state the diagram shows wires in the junction box. We are talking that this is the light fixture box and not a junction box. Just want to clear that up. A junction box can have a device in it but usually when we refer to a junction box it is a box that just contains wires and not device as a light, switch etc.
Fan had separate circuits/switches for light/fan
Also, the fan is on one circuit not multiple. If the fan/light unit is connected to one breaker it is on the same circuit. (in simple terms). A fixture box such as for a switch or light can have multiple circuits in it but in this case it is only one circuit.
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