All oil boilers are oversized for an average sized home in RI which leads to reduced efficiency. A smallest-of-the line propane mod-con would usually work though, but at an uptick in price/MMBTU on the fuel. Even with the reduced efficiency from oversizing, it'll usually still be cheaper to heat with a direct-vent triple-pass oil burner than with a propane mod-con, but an appropriatly sized mod-con would be more comfortable. At last season's prices heating with propane was comparable in cost to heating with electric baseboards (unless the island you live on is Block Island, or some other oil-fired island grid still unconnected to the mainland power grid.)
A mid-winter oil bill with a K-factor stamped on it would give a very good indication of what the design-condition load is without doing a full Manual-J type calc. The smallest oil burners out there have output north of 50KBTU/hr, but a typical 2500' house in RI with any insulation at all and at least storm windows over single-panes will have a heat load less than 40KBTU/hr, at +10F (the
99% outside design temp for most of RI) and in newer-better construction it could easily be less than 30KBTU/hr.
If the heat load analysis (Manual-J or fuel-use calc) indicates a heat load under 36KBTU/hr, and the house has a reasonably open floor plan, before spending the money on a boiler replacement, you may consider heating with ductless air source heat pumps (mini-split or multi-split), which would would have a similar up-front cost but would cost
less than half as much to run as an oil boiler, based on the 5 year average RI pricing for oil & electricity. (Obviously Block Islanders won't be going this route.) Like mod-cons, ductless heat pumps modulate output with load, running quietly & continuously (most of the interior heads are quieter than a refrigerator at their lower blower speed ranges), and have none of the wind-chill comfort or temperature swing issues of hot air furnaces. A ductless heat pump would also give you high-efficiency air conditioning too. Most units operate just fine down to 0F, and many of the better ones have specified output down to -5F. Some have specified output all the way down to -13F.