Zip is 12546. Tri state corner,NY,Mas & Conn. Gets pretty cold. House is ranch style 2x4 framing w/ R11batt insullation(not the greatest), T-111 siding with all anderson window and all duct work was just wraped and sealed. I have three pellet stoves on thermostats that heat during the day when im home and use the furnace heat when i am not home during the day and at night. the thermostat is set to 64 at night and the furnace cycles about every 20 to 25 min. We do have very poor air flow with the existing unit and with base board vents ,the heat works fairly well but the AC takes forever to cool the house, the new unit i pick is going to have to have a variable speed fan or at least two speeds. Yes Manual J and or heat load analisys is my next task. i will check on the cost per Kwh.
thank you for helping me open new paths of thought and giving me greatly needed direction.
The 99th percentile design temp for Kingston NY and Waterbury CT are both +2F, so your design temp is probably not lower than 0F. In a climate like that you can expect an average heating seaason coefficient of performance (COP) of 2.5 or better out of a better-class split system heat pump (mini-split or multi-). With a COP of 2.5 you get 2.5 x 3412 BTU/kwh= 8530BTU/kwh. If you are on the expensive side for electricity you might run 20cents/kwh, so for every dollar you'd get (100/20) x 8530= 42,650 BTU/$ of heat into the house.
With a 90% condensing oil burner you'd get 0.9 x 138,000= 124,200 BTU of heat into the ducts per gallon, so if the ducts are super-tight, well insulated and perfectly balanced, at $3.50 oil you'd bet 124,200/3.50= 35,486 BTU/$.
But in an air-leaky house with less than perfect duct design pressure differences between rooms drives higher infiltration rates due to the air handler creating pressure differences between rooms, so that needs to be discounted by at least 10%, maybe even 15% if there isn't a return in every room that has a supply duct. Call it ~32,000 BTU/$ and that may be an overestimate. So even at 20cent electricity(which is probabably an over-estimate) and $3.50 oil (probably an under estimate) heating with a mini-split would give you a 25-33% discount over heating with CONDENSING oil. The real numbers are probably even more favorable for the mini-split.
Either way, tightening up and spot-insulating the house will always be cost effective and add comfort at your R values & construction. With T111 siding and R11 batts you can probably retrofit cellulose to ~3lbs density with ~1" holes on the outside (without removing the batts- just compressing them) with minimal repair/repaint. Doing so would tighten up the place considerably, lowering your overall heat load from infiltration, and would give you a stable R12-13 center-cavity R. With R11 batts even if perfectly installed your R-value at 0F design temp would be about R8-R9 due to convection currents within the fiber. With the air retardency of cellulose loss of performance at the temperature extremes from internal convection disappear, and air leakage at the seams drops by over 90%.
For a quickie rough estimate of a Manual-J, what is total square feet of the house (better yet the outer perimeter length), and the number of windows & doors (and what's the U value rating of those Andersens)? Full basement, crawlspace, or slab on grade? Insulated foundation? Attic insulation (R value & type?)