Quote Originally Posted by Wally Hays View Post
Betcha that within 5 years nobody will be talking about it and the damage will be nowhere near as bad as they are saying it will.
In much the same way that nobody's talkin' about Chernobyl, I s'pose...

Until they actually succeed at putting a cork in it the upper bound of the damage can't be determined- like I said, this party's just gettin' started (and unlike Ixtoc-I it's in-our-face, there's no avoiding it, or the longer term effects.)

But even if they plugged it today (and I sure hope they do, but I'm not holding my breath), it'll still be the largest single-event environmental disaster in US history. I'm glad not to be dependent upon Louisiana fisheries for a living.

But whether the F150 remains the commuter-car of choice in 5 years depends more on Chinese energy policy than the costs of environmental damage mitigation in the Gulf of Mexico. China is currently burning ~1/3 as much oil as the US, but is on track to be using 2/3-3/4 as much by 2020, exceeding US consumption by ~2025. There aren't enough drilling rigs in the world to keep pace with the increase in Asian appetite- US efficiency will be enforced by the market: People driving mopeds & mini-cars short-haul in India & China are willing and better-able to pay a much steeper price per gallon than a 100mile/day suburban commuter in an F150.