3 wire for me - see thread below about mystery well for some more debate
Little more cost in 3 wire, more starting torque and ability to test carefully and remedy failures and predict upcoming failures from the surface.
1.5 HP seems max used for 2 wire.
If you use cap. start cap. run [CSCR] control box on a 1.5 hp 3 wire pump you might pay for the pump in saved electricity in 10 years. Too tired to calc it - probably several times over.