House Prices

Didn't know where to post this so I just figured this is a good place.

I work at a bank as a Credit Modeler. Yup I figure out how likely you are to default and price you accordingly.

I heard some really terrible projections this week while in meetings. I can't tell you where this information comes from because it's proprietary and expensive.

A very large rating agency, that should give you a clue, recently issued a statment that indicates that 2008 will be the worst year yet with an expected 11% decline in property values followed by 3.5-4.5% for the two years after that.

The bottom line is that in the next three years we'll be looking at our houses being worth 17% less.

I also read recently that we're currently sitting at a 40% chance of a full recession.

I figured I would share this stuff incase anyone is thinking about making some moves. I know I was about 30 days ago.

Tom

What's the word on the feds dropping rates again during the december session? We plan on refi'ing if they do, bad thing is it will send oil prices higher as well. It's been a buyers market for sure this year, I feel for folks who have had to sell their homes, good deal for those with extra capital to spend.

Last night on Nightline they were showing how prices in Fairfield, CA had dropped 25-30%.

Feds are dropping rates to kill the dollar

Bush quietley signed into law last year the new
currency that will be issued some day....


cant remember the exact law number
but I will look it up and post it tonight.....


Our new money will be called the " Amerio"
and once the borders are dropped between Canada,
the Usa and Mexico that will be the new currency we will
all be expected to use......

Why else are they just letting the Mexicans come up
here in droves....and giving them free educatioin, health care ect.....


but first thing you you got to is bring our economy to its knees
so everyone will accept the "new world order"

That is what Bush is letting the Fed do now.....


the grand scheme is to make us into an
"economic tradeing zone"


tacos for dollars... its all in our best interest...

The alleged currency is called the "Amero".

Wiki Article on Amero
http://www.amerocurrency.com/

The word is that rates will drop but that's no gaurantee. In addition when they say they are droping rates they're typically talking about short term rates. The rates at which banks borrow money. So some times it can take a lot of time before long term, 10-year, rates drop. So hearing of a drop in rates doesn't mean it's time to run out and refi. Sometimes you'll have to wait a bit for the yeild curve to react.

Tom

Black Helicopters

The new coins will be dropped in poor neighborhoods from black helicopters operated by the CIA and MECHA.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp

\what the next surprise???

When they decide to make it a law that
we cannot hoarde gold and want
everyone to turn in their gold like back in the 30s..

then lets guess which one of these are comming next.

----The Amero----or the end of Social Security...

Or both????

Or maybe Jeb Bush in the white house....???.

then the crashing of our currency

and turning everyone here into third class citizens in our own country???

--------------------------------------------------------------------

I dont see what Mexico has to offer Canada
the USA except .....cheap labor....and Drugs..





All these possibilities makes
HILLORY CLINTON for president sort of look ok.....

and that is what really scares me....

Used to be a landlord

But I really feel that I simply cannot deal with renters again.

I like the security of always having a place to live (just kickem out!) but you can pick up homes in my area for a song and dance.

So many for sale, so many foreclosed that the banks actually come to the bidding game just so they don't take a plunging beating.


The good thing is that there's always a turnup with a turndown. The balloon always falls from the sky, eventually.

This is all just very scary stuff. We all have to stash our cash and be glad we are plumbers, we may have to lower our rates, but atleast there will always be work

I will be on a conference call with the Chief U.S. Economist for the Mortgage Strategy Group on Friday of this week. I will report back with his forecasts if anyone has any interest in that info.

Any interest?

Tom

I think this problem will not harm everyone...

Some places that are dropping in huge values also went up the most--it's a bit like risk on any investment. Many people were in the market in some form before the huge run-up. For me to 'lose' money on my house the Minneapolis market would have to drop 50%. No doubt I don't want to 'lose' money/value, but this is typically not realized unless you were trying to make some of the free real-estate money and exposing yourself accordingly, or you were trying to afford something you shouldn't have to begin with. Remember when the loan officer would approve you for 28% of your monthly? Ahh, the good old days.

I find the NYC market even more interesting. Values continuing to rise. Actually, around here, the expensive houses are still doing OK. I'd hate to be on a converted farm 40 miles from town with empty neighbors though...

Indiana housing is down almost 60%, foreclosures are through the roof and alot of good people in the construction biz are looking for new jobs. If you have capital now's the time to be buying real estate in Indy.

master plumber mark said:

Bush quietly signed into law last year the new
currency that will be issued some day....


cant remember the exact law number
but I will look it up and post it tonight.....


Our new money will be called the " Amerio"
and once the borders are dropped between Canada,
the Usa and Mexico that will be the new currency we will
all be expected to use......

Why else are they just letting the Mexicans come up
here in droves....and giving them free education, health care ect.....


but first thing you you got to is bring our economy to its knees
so everyone will accept the "new world order"

That is what Bush is letting the Fed do now.....


the grand scheme is to make us into an
"economic trading zone"


tacos for dollars... its all in our best interest...

Click to expand...

A new form of $$$, the Amerio, is not scary, Lindon Johnson signed into law the non convertibility bill back in the 60s, I think it was, making it impossible for our money to ever be backed by gold or silver again. This was at the behest of the Fed Reserve.

That means it really doesn't matter what the bills are, they have no intrinsic value now. They are only worth what someone is willing to trade you for them. Basically they are worthless and the Fed Reserve is playing smoke and mirrors.

The thing I don't like is going to a cashless $$$ system. We are 1/2 way there now with checks, credit, and debit cards.

The funny thing about all this is that we really don't have any power to change any of this...it will just happen weather we like it or not.

Once it goes cashless you will be able to be tracked where ever you go.

They already can do this to a degree but with cash you can be as private as you want, if you choose to.

With cashless, the government will be able, with the stroke of a computer key, to freeze all your $$$ if they wish for what ever reason, and a mistake could be a nightmare to reverse.

This is a privacy issue, and once we go cashless your privacy will be gone forever.

Well the call was pretty bleak. They have a revised projection for 2008. They claim it will be the worst year yet with approx. 12% decline in property value. They claim another 3% in 2009 with a turn around projected in 2010.

Current housing inventory is running at about 2.7% where historically it sits at about .84%.

The goal to a housing turn around is expected to be getting months on market down to 3.5 months. They claim that an additional 10% drop in property value is necessary to create the momentum to make this happen.

They estimate that there will be 800,000 foreclosure in 2008 and that banking loss severtiy will run approximately 45%. (Very high)

They claim one of the biggest obsticles to a turn around is decline in sub-prime mortgage origination blocking would be borrowers from buying. The layman interpertation of this is that low score borrowers can't get loans or at least not reasonable ones.

There is no expectation for new construction to pick up again until late 2010-2012.

They claim that Bush's plan of freezing interest rates will have only a marginal affect on foreclosure but they applaud the move as out of the box thinking.

Basically really dark stuff in store.

Tom

statjunk said:

They claim one of the biggest obsticles to a turn around is decline in sub-prime mortgage origination blocking would be borrowers from buying. The layman interpertation of this is that low score borrowers can't get loans or at least not reasonable ones.

Tom

Click to expand...

This is pretty funny....in a warped sort of way. Are they inferring that the cure to the problem is to reinstitute the cause?

Mort